MLB best bets: Mets vs. Yankees odds, picks, prediction for Tue. 7/23 (2024)

The Subway Series returns to the Bronx for a two-game set as the New York Metsand New York Yankeesare right in the thick of their respective playoff races. The Mets swept the two-game set last month at Citi Field, and quite frankly, they made things look easy.

The Yankees have revenge on their minds as they send Luis Gil to the mound to face Jose Quintana. Oddsmakers make the Yankees a -160 favorite on the moneyline, and the total is 8.5.

Here's my Mets vs. Yankees pick, includingMLB odds andpredictions for July 23.

Metsvs.YankeesOdds

Tuesday, July 23, 7:05 p.m. ET, TBS

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLBodds here.

New York Mets

The Mets have surged since the beginning of June, finding themselves in the third wild card spot in the NL. They took care of business against Gil at Citi Field on June 26, but Gil has turned things around since that start.

Quintana is on the mound for the Mets, and he's had mixed results against the Yankees in the past. The Bombers are 10-for-39 against Quintana in the past, good for a .256 batting average.

Quintana hasn't pitched great as of late, and I fear that similar results are coming in the future. Quintana has below-average metrics across the board, including an alarming 5.17 xERA.

He doesn't generate a lot of swings and misses, which is bad news in a band-box like Yankee Stadium. It's a terrible matchup for Quintana, even against the boom-or-bust lower part of the Yankees' lineup.

The Mets are a much better team against left-handed pitching than right-handed, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them struggle in the early goings against Gil. Their offense has been a juggernaut over the last month and a half, but that doesn't mean an offensive outburst is looming tonight.

New York Yankees

It's no surprise that tonight's key to the game is Gil's performance. Gil went through a month stretch where he seemed like he couldn't get anybody out, but his last two starts before the All-Star break suggest he's finally gotten back on track.

Here are Gil's numbers over the last two starts: 12.2 innings pitched, 16 strikeouts, one walk and two earned runs.

The biggest takeaway from that stat line is the one walk allowed over the two starts. Gil struggles with his command, so if he continues to be efficient, positive results will follow.

I expect Gil to keep rolling tonight against the Mets. The Mets made him pay last month, but they've started to cool down offensively.

The Yankees' lineup is still a recurring issue, as the bottom of the order is not producing as nearly as much as the top. There's no questioning that Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are one of the best offensive duos in the sport, but unfortunately, that hasn't been enough for the offense as of late.

Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton's absences have caused the lineup to tank, but tonight, I like the matchup against Quintana.

Quintana's poor results lately are bound to continue, and I expect the Yankees' offense to come out with its hair on fire given last month's debacle at Citi Field.

Mets vs. Yankees

Betting Pick & Prediction

I expect the Yankees to take care of business tonight and avenge being swept last month at Citi Field. -160 for the full-game moneyline is a bit too steep, so I’d prefer taking them F5 -0.5 at -115.

Gil should continue to pitch well, and the Mets' lineup should have a tougher time figuring him out this go around.

Quintana also has a very tough matchup, and I expect his poor results as of late to continue.

I think the Yankees win the game outright, but let’s target the matchup between Quintana and Gil to reduce the amount of juice you have to lay.

Pick: Yankees -0.5 F5 (-115)

Mets vs. Yankees

Betting Pick & Prediction

I expect the Yankees to take care of business tonight and avenge being swept last month at Citi Field. -160 for the full-game moneyline is a bit too steep, so I’d prefer taking them F5 -0.5 at -115.

Gil should continue to pitch well, and the Mets' lineup should have a tougher time figuring him out this go around.

Quintana also has a very tough matchup, and I expect his poor results as of late to continue.

I think the Yankees win the game outright, but let’s target the matchup between Quintana and Gil to reduce the amount of juice you have to lay.

Pick: Yankees -0.5 F5 (-115)