How much does a ping-pong ball weigh?
In a literal sense, it weighs 2.7 grams, or less than one-tenth of an ounce. But for several NHL franchises — this year especially — it’s the weight of the world, the future of their entire organization and their best hope to get out of their current doldrums.
The NHL draft lottery will be held on May 8 in Secaucus, N.J., at a studio within NHL Network headquarters. It will determine who gets the NHL’s next “generational” talent in forward Connor Bedard, a native of Vancouver, B.C., who has rocketed to hockey celebrity status at only 17 years old.
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The Anaheim Ducks, by virtue of finishing with the league’s worst record, have the best chance, out of the 11 eligible non-playoff teams, to land Bedard at 25.5 percent. The Columbus Blue Jackets (13.5 percent) are next, followed by the Chicago Blackhawks (11.5), San Jose Sharks (9.5) and Montreal Canadiens (8.5).
The NHL has changed its lottery format several times through the years in its attempt to fulfill three different objectives:
- to reward the clubs at the bottom of the league’s standings with the best shot at drafting the next wave of talent
- to establish a process that is equitable but not a guarantee, with the hopes that clubs won’t “tank” — lose intentionally — to guarantee a certain draft pick
- to have a process that is full of drama for as many clubs as possible
As for that last objective …
From 2001-14, the most a club could move up in the lottery was four spots, so only the five worst clubs in the league had a chance to pick No. 1.
Thanks to changes instituted with the 2021 draft, a team can now jump 10 spots via the lottery. That means the 11 teams that finished at the bottom of the standings — all the way down to Vancouver (3 percent) — will have a shot to pick No. 1.
Additional reading:
- NHL Draft Lottery power rankings: Conspiracies, comedy and chaos for Connor Bedard
- With Connor Bedard up for grabs, what’s at stake at the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery?
The teams that finished 12th to 16th in the standings cannot move up to the No. 1 pick via the lottery. If one of those five teams wins the lottery, they would move up to 10 spots in the order and Anaheim would automatically be declared the winner.
That’s why the Ducks, listed in some places as having an 18.5 percent chance to win the lottery, actually have a 25.5 percent chance. (If you add the percentage chances of the 12th- to 16th-place teams, it adds another 7 percent.)
But while teams have a chance to vault up the draft board, they can only slide back so far. No team can drop more than two places from where they finished in the standings, meaning Anaheim will pick no lower than third, Columbus no lower than fourth, etc.
How does the lottery selection process work? Well, it can sound like a riddle, and it can feel like more math than most of us would welcome. The NHL hires an outside accounting firm to handle the process.
First, 14 ping-pong balls are loaded into a lottery machine, each of them labeled with a number between 1 and 14 (1, 2, 3, etc.). Why 14? Because there are 1,001 different four-digit number combinations between 1 and 14, and the league needs 1,000 different possible numbers to conduct its lottery.
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One of the 1,001 number combinations is chosen at random and is removed from the pool of possible numbers, leaving the process with an even 1,000 numbers.
Next, each NHL club in the lottery is assigned a series of randomly-selected four-digit numbers in accordance with their lottery odds. Anaheim has an 18.5 percent chance based on their last-place finish, so 185 number combinations, but they also win if the 12th- through 16th-place teams win and move up 10 spots. Those five clubs combined have a 7 percent chance of winning (70 four-number combinations), which gives the Ducks 255 four-number combinations that would lead to the No. 1 pick.
Columbus is next at 13.5 percent (135 four-number combinations), followed by Chicago at 11.5 percent (115), San Jose at 9.5 percent (95), Montreal at 8.5 percent (85), etc.
The list of numbers is then made public by the league, as is the 1,001st number that previously was randomly selected and set aside. Then comes the lottery draw, and there are actually two draws.
The first is to select the No. 1 pick. The four-number combination that pops up from the lottery machine is matched with the list of numbers to see which team wins. If it’s any of the bottom 11 teams, that’s the club that gets to pick No. 1 and presumably gets Bedard.
If the winner is a team in the No. 12-No. 16 range, the Ducks will be assigned the No. 1 pick and that “winning” team will slot up 10 spots from their pre-set lottery odds. (So, Ottawa could move all the way up from No. 12 to No. 2, Buffalo from No. 13 to No. 3, etc.)
A second draw is then held to determine the next-highest available spot. (This would be the No. 2 overall selection unless Ottawa wins the lottery.)
In the 2022 lottery, the “winning” numbers were 1-3-4-13, which corresponded to Montreal, who came into the draft with the best odds (18.5 percent). The Canadiens selected winger Juraj Slafkovsky with the No. 1 pick.
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The second combination of numbers was 3-5-10-14, which corresponded to New Jersey. The Devils moved up from No. 5 to No. 2 in the order.
One can only imagine the behind-the-scenes drama as the numbers are revealed.
The NHL allows a representative from every team in the lottery to be present as a witness, and each of the witnesses is sworn to secrecy (their cell phones are held by security, nobody is allowed to leave the room, etc.) until the TV show airs a while later.
What fans see during the league’s primetime TV show is a highly orchestrated, made-for-TV event hosted by NHL commissioner Gary Bettman and deputy commissioner Bill Daly, who stands behind a high-top table and lifts the placards with each club’s logo to reveal the draft order.
Despite the independent accounting firm, the multiple witnesses and the convoluted system, conspiracy theories prevail across the hockey world, claiming that the NHL has its fingers on the scale each year, dictating which franchise has access to the top prospects.
To that end, the league has for several seasons now released a video that shows the actual lottery draw that determines the order of selection.
(Photo of Gary Bettman at the 2022 draft lottery: Mike Stobe / NHLI via Getty Images)
Aaron Portzline is a senior writer for The Athletic NHL based in Columbus, Ohio. He has been a sportswriter for more than 30 years, winning national and state awards as a reporter at the Columbus Dispatch. In addition, Aaron has been a frequent contributor to the NHL Network and The Hockey News, among other outlets. Follow Aaron on Twitter @Aportzline
